The Today's Chanakya exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 predicts a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting a significant shift in the state's traditional caste-based voting patterns. The most notable finding is the NDA's success in securing a substantial portion of the Yadav vote, a community that has long been a loyal base for Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Mahagathbandhan.According to the poll, the BJP-JDU led NDA is projected to win a comfortable majority with 160 ± 12 seats in the 243-member assembly. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 77 ± 12 seats, while other parties may get around 6 seats.In terms of vote share, the NDA is projected to receive a commanding 44% (± 3%), while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 38% (± 3%) of the total votesThe exit poll's caste-wise analysis highlights a major realignment of voter loyalties. The NDA has reportedly made deep inroads into the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) vote bank, securing a massive 55% of their support, compared to just 24% for the Mahagathbandhan This significant lead in the OBC-EBC category, which includes the Yadavs, indicates a break from traditional voting allegiances and is a key factor behind the NDA's projected landslide victory.While the RJD-led alliance appears to have retained its strong support among Muslim voters (69%), it has failed to consolidate the entire OBC-EBC vote as in previous elections The NDA also maintained its dominant position among the upper castes, securing 63% of the votes from Brahmins, Banias, and Rajputs.This potential shift in the Yadav vote, combined with the consolidation of its core voter base, seems to have given the NDA a clear edge across most regions of the state, signaling a significant political realignment in Bihar.
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