Fresh Bay of Bengal System Eyes Cyclone Formation Around September 24

India’s Southwest Monsoon is gearing up for a dynamic exit phase as divergent atmospheric patterns reshape nationwide weather charts heading into late September. While meteorological indicators establish that the formal withdrawal process will kick off from western Rajasthan around September 19, an intensifying weather disturbance taking shape over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal is set to inject fresh momentum into the retreating system. This developing maritime low-pressure belt is poised to stall the monsoon’s departure across central and northern belts, sustaining widespread convective precipitation and wet spells across multiple states through the end of the month.Low-Pressure Brewing in Andaman Sea: Skymet Warns of Possible Cyclone by September 24Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather reports that while the low-pressure pocket lingering over Gujarat and Kutch is migrating toward the northern Arabian Sea—clearing the path for dry winds over Rajasthan—a powerful tropical system is simultaneously taking shape over the Bay of Bengal. According to Skymet meteorologist Mahesh Palawat, atmospheric conditions suggest this circulation could intensify progressively over the waters and potentially strengthen into a cyclonic storm around September 24. While the exact trajectory and wind intensity remain under observation, initial projections suggest intense storm bands will buffet the coastal belts of Odisha and South Bengal, with the moisture-laden outer bands pushing deep into central India and extending convective showers as far as the National Capital Region (NCR), potentially delaying Delhi's standard September 25 withdrawal schedule.High Deficits Across States and Early Snowfall in Himalayan RangesThe anticipated late-September showers could provide vital hydrological respite after cumulative nationwide precipitation between June 1 and September 15 settled roughly 15 percent below normal. Rainfall distribution across regions exhibits stark contrasts, with Andhra Pradesh logging an acute deficit of 51 percent and Bihar standing 36 percent below normal, even as coastal Odisha recorded a 21 percent surplus. Meanwhile, early autumn transitions have already gripped the northern mountains; high-altitude sectors across Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh experienced light snowfall and intermittent rain on Thursday. The Rohtang Pass near Manali alongside the upper ridgelines of Gulmarg and Gurez in the Kashmir Valley recorded the season’s maiden snowfall, pulling daytime mercury down and signaling a swift change in weather patterns across northern altitudes.