When we hear news about protests or potential regime changes in Iran, the immediate reaction is often about human rights or oil prices. But for India, the stakes are much higher and much more specific. If the current government in Tehran falls or if there is massive instability, it is actually bad news for India’s strategic interests and excellent news for our neighbors, China and Pakistan.Here is why a change in power in Iran isn't just their internal matter, but a major headache for India.1. The Chabahar Port DilemmaLet’s look at the map. Pakistan sits right between India and Afghanistan, effectively blocking our direct land access to Central Asia. To bypass Pakistan, India invested heavily in Iran’s Chabahar Port.This port is our gateway. It allows us to send goods to Afghanistan and beyond without asking Pakistan for permission.2. The China-Pakistan CelebrationIt is no secret that China wants to dominate the region with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They have already built the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which rivals Chabahar.3. The Road to Russia (INSTC)India is pushing for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Think of this as a massive highway and rail network connecting India to Russia and Europe via Iran. It cuts shipping time by almost half.Without a stable, friendly government in Tehran, this corridor is dead in the water. India needs Iran to be the reliable middleman to reach markets in Russia and Central Asia.4. The Afghanistan ProblemBoth India and Iran currently share a worry: the Taliban in Afghanistan. Right now, Tehran and New Delhi often work together to keep a check on extremism flowing out of Kabul. A regime change in Iran creates a security vacuum. If Iran stops policing its borders effectively, it creates a massive security headache for the entire region, eventually spilling over towards India.The Bottom LineWhile democracy and freedom are important conversations, in the cold world of geopolitics, stability often wins. India has spent decades building trust with the current Iranian establishment despite US sanctions. A sudden reset button now would likely tilt the balance in favor of China and Pakistan, leaving India scrambling to find a new route to the west.
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